The Impact of the Coronavirus on Local Food Insecurity

Analysis of how food insecurity may increase in 2020 due to COVID-19 for the overall population and children by state, county, and congressional district.

Introduction

In 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the lives and livelihoods of people throughout the world. For the first time in recent memory, decisions are being made that weigh economic cost against the lives of people in the United States, and no matter the outcome, the most vulnerable members of society are in position to fare the worst. The individuals who are at highest risk for serious illness associated with COVID-19 – including seniors, people with chronic illness, and people of color – are, in many cases, the same individuals who will be most adversely affected by the economic ramifications that have resulted from widespread closures.

In this brief, we explore the impact of COVID-19 on local food insecurity. Households that experience food insecurity lack access to enough food for an active, healthy life for all household members. Before the COVID-19 crisis began, more than 37 million people, including more than 11 million children, lived in a food- insecure household.¹ Pre-pandemic data reflect the lowest food insecurity rates seen since before the Great Recession,² but the current crisis is likely to reverse the improvements that have occurred over the past decade. As of this writing, unemployment has soared, and demand has spiked at food banks and pantries across the country.³

As we reveal in the following pages, millions of people are newly at risk of experiencing food insecurity, alongside those who were experiencing food insecurity before the COVID-19 crisis began. Introduction

METHODS

For ten years, Feeding America has produced local-level estimates of food insecurity through the Map the Meal Gap (MMG) study. The same model that is leveraged to estimate local food insecurity can also predict food insecurity using projected changes to annual unemployment and poverty rates. In fact, the MMG model was first developed to estimate the impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on food insecurity. To predict changes in food insecurity as a result of COVID-19, we update the variables in the model based on the best available evidence around projected unemployment and poverty.⁴

Two earlier briefs examined potential increases in national food insecurity rates for the overall population and for children.⁵ These included three scenarios, displayed in Table 1, that increase in severity: Scenarios A and B mirror changes that occurred in years one and two of the Great Recession and Scenario C reflects more severe circumstances. Under Scenario C, in which the annual poverty rate increases to 16.6% (4.8 percentage points higher than 2018) and the annual unemployment rate increases to 11.5% (7.6 percentage points higher than 2018), the number of people experiencing food insecurity in 2020 would increase by over 17 million, including nearly 7 million children. This implies that approximately 54 million people (1 in 6) would experience food insecurity in 2020, including 18 million children (1 in 4).

In this brief, we build upon this approach to explore how food insecurity in 2020 may change locally: for counties, congressional districts, and states.

While we have produced projected food insecurity estimates for each of the three scenarios at the local level, this brief focuses only on estimates generated for Scenario C. At this time, the assumption used for the annual projected unemployment rate under Scenario C is most consistent with published projections from other credible sources.⁶ Additionally, the state, county and congressional district projections account for likely changes in the unemployment rate by industry and occupation as well as local variation in the number of workers by industry.⁷

FINDINGS OVERVIEW

Across geographies, the following trends generally hold:

• Places that had relatively higher rates of food insecurity before COVID-19 will continue to have relatively higher rates of food insecurity.
• Places that had relatively higher numbers of food-insecure people before COVID-19 (higher population areas) will continue to have relatively higher numbers of food-insecure people.
• Places that had relatively lower rates of food insecurity before COVID-19 will see the largest relative increases in food insecurity (though they will generally still have relatively lower rates).⁸

In the following sections we highlight notable findings by geography for the overall population and for children. A summary of the highest projected rates and changes are summarized below in Table 2.

STATES

Overall population

At the state level, the projected rate of food insecurity among the overall population for 2020 is the lowest for North Dakota (12.0%) and highest for Mississippi (24.1%). North Dakota also had the lowest food insecurity rate in 2018 (6.8%), but it would see the largest increase in the food insecurity rate (77%) compared to all other states. Mississippi had the highest rate of food insecurity for 2018 (18.7%) as well, and its projected rate for 2020 would represent a 29% increase. In line with its status as the most populous state, California, would see the largest increase in the number of people experiencing food insecurity - 2.1 million as well as the largest total number of people experiencing food insecurity - 6.4 million. Figure 1 shows projected food insecurity rates for the overall population by state.

The states with the highest projected food insecurity rates for 2020 are shown in Table 3. The list closely parallels rankings based on 2018 rates, with the exception of Nevada which moves from 20th to 8th on the basis of the state having the largest projected increase in unemployment because of the pandemic.

Table 4 lists the five states that would have the largest percent change in food insecurity rate between 2018 and 2020.

Children

Among children, the projected child food insecurity rates for 2020 range from 18.4% (Massachusetts) to 34.5% (Louisiana). While California would see the highest increase in the number of children living in food-insecure households (852,000), Texas would be home to the most food-insecure children – 2.3 million – though only slightly more than the total for California (2.2 million). Figure 2 shows projected child food insecurity rates by state.

Table 5 displays states with the highest projected child food insecurity rates for 2020. Like with the overall population, the 2020 rankings compare closely to 2018. In this case, the exception is Hawaii, which moves from 19th to 10th and is second only to Nevada in its projected increase in unemployment because of the pandemic.

Table 6 lists the five states that would have the largest percent change in child food insecurity rate between 2018 and 2020.

COUNTIES AND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

Overall population

Among all counties, the projected rate of food insecurity among the overall population for 2020 ranges from a low of 8.6% to a high of 34.2%.

Food insecurity among congressional districts spans a slightly smaller range.

Spotlight: Navajo County, Arizona

Among larger counties (total population greater than 100,000), Navajo County, Arizona, is projected to have the highest food insecurity rate at 26.2%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points over the rate in 2018.

The counties that are projected to have the highest food insecurity rates and the highest number of food-insecure people in 2020 are listed in Table 7.

The counties that are projected to have the largest percent change in food insecurity rate between 2018 and 2020 are listed in Table 8.

Children

At the county level, the projected rate of child food insecurity for 2020 would be lowest in in Falls Church city, Virginia and highest in East Carroll Parish, Louisiana, where more than half of children are projected to be food insecure.

Like with food insecurity for the overall population, child food insecurity among congressional districts spans a slightly more narrow range.

Spotlight: Hidalgo County, Texas

Among larger counties (child population greater than 100,000), Hidalgo County, TX, is projected to have the highest child food insecurity rate at 37.2%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the rate in 2018.

The counties that are projected to have the highest child food insecurity rates and the highest number of food-insecure children in 2020 are listed in Table 9.

The counties that are projected have the largest percent change in child food insecurity rate between 2018 and 2020 are listed in Table 10.

Spotlight: Orleans Parish, Louisiana

Among larger counties (total population greater than 100,000), Orleans Parish, Louisiana, has one of the highest projected food insecurity rates - 23.9% for the overall population, which would mean that an additional 23,110 people would experience food insecurity when compared to 2018. The projected child food insecurity rate for Orleans Parish is 36.6%, meaning that one in three or an additional 8,430 children would experience food insecurity in 2020.

In Orleans Parish, which is home to the city of New Orleans, more than 60% of the population is African American.

Increasing evidence reveals that African Americans are experiencing worse health outcomes from COVID-19, likely due to a combination of factors that stem from longstanding economic and health inequities. People of color are more likely to have inconsistent access to healthcare and to face discrimination in the healthcare system and are also more likely to have pre-existing chronic health conditions that increase the severity of COVID-19’s health impact.¹¹ African Americans in particular are more likely to be represented in occupations such as nursing, specifically as home health aides and licensed practical and vocational nurses (i.e. LPN and LVNs) as well as other jobs without the option of working from home - adding to the risk of contracting COVID-19.

Structural disparities have also led to substantially higher levels of food insecurity for African Americans: in 2018, 21.2% of black households were food insecure versus 11.1% overall.¹² Systematic barriers to those jobs less likely to be affected by the pandemic, lower than average wages, and greater employment instability all contribute to African American workers being more vulnerable to an economic downturn.¹³ Both pre-pandemic and in 2020, counties with the highest rates of food insecurity are overrepresented by counties with a majority African American population.¹⁴

IMPLICATIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a public health and economic crisis, the effects of which are widespread. The repercussions will include added hardship for already vulnerable populations as well as a significant increase in the number of people experiencing food insecurity.

Federal nutrition programs, especially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), continue to be an important first line of defense against food insecurity for millions of people and have become particularly critical during this period of acute need. Promising steps have been taken to increase benefit levels, but continued and increased investment in these programs is needed to help individuals experiencing food insecurity weather the crisis.

In addition to federal support, many people are turning to charitable food assistance to make ends meet. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Feeding America network of food banks served over 40 million people each year. Since the crisis began, food banks have faced a “perfect storm” that includes surges in demand, declines in food donations, fewer available volunteers, and other disruptions to the charitable food assistance system’s operating model.

The COVID-19 crisis has dealt a swift blow to the economic health of individuals and communities across the country, and the effects have the potential to be long-term. It took ten years for food insecurity rates to return to pre-Great Recession levels. For now, with no immediate end to the crisis in sight, demand for charitable food assistance is expected to remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future.

For questions or information, contact research@feedingamerica.org.

NOTES AND REFERENCES

1. Coleman-Jensen, A., Rabbitt, M., Gregory, C., & Singh, A. (2019). Household Food Security in the United States in 2018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Report Number 270.
2. Coleman-Jensen, A., Rabbitt, M., Gregory, C., & Singh, A. (2019). Household Food Security in the United States in 2018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Report Number 270.
3. According to the Department of Labor’s Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims reports, 36.5 million people filed new claims between the weeks ending March 21st and May 9th. The vast majority of Feeding America member food banks have report increased client demand since the pandemic began.
4. Although MMG accounts for several economic and demographic variables, our food insecurity projections are based on projected changes to unemployment and poverty in 2020. This is because these two variables have a statistically significant effect on food insecurity estimates and are likely to be most directly affected by COVID-19. Other variables in the model are held constant using 2018 data.
5. The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity and The Impact of the Coronavirus on Child Food Insecurity can be found at Feedingamerica.org.
6. The annual national unemployment rate used here for Scenario C (11.5%) is within range of estimates (when annualized) from a monthly Wall Street Journal survey of more than 60 economists as of May (11.6%), the Congressional Budget Office (11.4%), and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (10.3%).
7. The projected adjusted change in unemployment was calculated using estimates of industry job loss due to COVID-19 based on an analysis of projected changes in the unemployment rate by sector and occupation using estimates from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as well as actual percentages of workers by industry from the American Community Survey (ACS). The adjusted unemployment changes are not provided in this brief but are available from Feeding America upon request.
8. For example, North Dakota had the lowest state rate of food insecurity in 2018 (6.8%). North Dakota’s projected food insecurity rate because of COVID-19 is 12.0%. That represents a 77% increase, and the highest increase of any state, but North Dakota’s new food insecurity rate would still be the lowest among all states.
9. Center for American Indian Health (2020). Programs: COVID-19 response. http://caih.jhu.edu/programs/category/covid-19-response
10. Spievack, N., González, J., & Brown, S. (2020, May 8). Latinx unemployment is highest of all racial and ethnic groups for the first time on record. Urban Wire (Blog of the Urban Institute). https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/latinx-unemployment-highest-all-racial-and-ethnic-groups- first-time-record
11. Johns Hopkins Medicine (2020). Coronavirus in African Americans and other people of color. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid19-racial- disparities
12. Coleman-Jensen, A., Rabbitt, M., Gregory, C., & Singh, A. (2019). Household Food Security in the United States in 2018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Report Number 270.
13. Weller, C. E. (2019). African Americans face systematic obstacles to getting good jobs. Center for American Progress. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2019/12/05/478150/african-americans-face- systematic-obstacles-getting-good-jobs/
14. Gundersen, C., Dewey, A., Engelhard, E., Strayer, M., & Lapinski, L. (2020). Map the Meal Gap 2020: A Report on County and Congressional District Food Insecurity and County Food Cost in the United States in 2018. Produced by Feeding America.